Climate Change vs. Developing Countries - Close to Home

This blog post is going to be somewhat of a more personal sentiment. I am approaching the tail end of my first term of third year at UCL, and I have been faced with the haunting reality of climate change in the past 11 weeks more so than I have throughout my entire life. To put it bluntly, I was not aware of the severity of the situation, and the impact it has and is going to have on our planet. It evidently took me a long time to understand that while climate change does occur naturally, the alarmingly high rate of carbon dioxide emissions over the past couple of centuries has never happened so quickly before.

The way climate change affects regions and countries differently forces individual nations to keep reorganising their priorities. In addition, further globalization has got these countries having to think about bringing in aid to other countries. As someone who hails from the other side of the fence, a developing country, climate change is inevitably hitting me a little harder.

I come from Malaysia, a beautiful country located in Southeast Asia. My country consists of Peninsular Malaysia, which shares borders with Thailand and Singapore, along with three other states located on the island of Borneo, commonly known as East Malaysia. These two landmasses are separated by the South China Sea. Being in very close proximity to the equator calls for humid, tropical weather pretty much all year around. Malaysia is on its way to become more and more developed, with a large proportion of the economy being focused on business, trade and investments. I live a comfortable life back home, which is the case for a lot of families living in urban areas – we have a strong middle class. I do, however, sense a growing disparity between the upper and lower middle classes, a possible sign of the rich getting richer. Poverty still very much exists, however, being more prevalent in rural areas and coastal towns.

Both the Peninsular and East Malaysia have an abundance of coastlines, and this immediately establishes a connection to increasing flood risks due to sea level rise. Awang and Hamid state that due to climate and topography, the regional sea level is higher than global projections. There are a significant proportion of developing countries that stage similar settings in terms of their land. In countries like Malaysia that regularly experience heavy rainfall, climate change could heighten the probability of more extreme storms and flood events. Sarkar et al., 2014 identified the states in Malaysia that were prone to heavy flooding, and that the 9% of land in Malaysia that carry this risk would affect about 3.5 million people. It also states that 90cm rise in sea level could result in a 1200km inundation of coastal zones in Peninsular Malaysia.

Given what a small country Malaysia is, this largely affects the economy. Through flooding, Malaysia suffers an estimated loss of about MYR100 million per year (slightly less than £20 million) (Baharuddin, 2007, Sarkar et al., 2014). This clearly displays the challenges faced by developing countries, which, while still trying to bridge the economic gap with developed countries, have to take into account the major economic setbacks. M. Mirza states that developing countries have taken in about US$35 billion per year to compensate for natural disasters in the past decade.

We are undoubtedly in a more compromising situation compared to developed countries. I have recently been trying to think of the simplest ways possible that funds in my country can be reallocated, and I do realise that our hands are not completely tied. There are several projects, especially in the more recent years that we need not have spent so much money on. I am no economist, so the financial situation in my country is far beyond my understanding. However, as a common citizen, I have observed that the impacts of climate change have not yet become a critical issue to address. Corruption, fraud, bribery, misconduct, crime etc. are the numerous issues that pay a price, and curbing it would help the economy. Before I pass off as an idealistic, impressionable millennial, I am fully aware that the reality of it all is way more complex. The urgency of this situation is simply not quite understood. I strongly feel that even the smallest changes and collectively make a difference, as cliché as that may sound.

In some ways I want to thank climate change. It has changed my view on many things, and it has made we want to question our current status quo and if we will be able to survive a drastic change. Whether it is prevention or cure, business-as-usual will not be feasible for much longer. My opinions in this blog post might be completely, entirely wrong, and that Malaysia may not necessarily be a benchmark for other developing countries, but the popular consensus is that these countries most definitely have a larger hurdle to leap over.  

Here are the links to some interesting articles on climate change in developing countries:

1.              http://www.climatechangenews.com/2013/09/17/developing-nations-equally-to-blame-for-climate-change-report/

2.              https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/nov/23/paris-climate-talks-developed-countries-must-do-more-than-reduce-emissions

Should We Worry About Sea Level Rise?

Global sea level rise is attributed to a few causes, mainly thermal expansion and melting of ice. These two factors lead back to the phenomenon of global warming, which we know is mainly resulted from the release of heat-trapping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. It has also become clear to us that this warming is predominantly human-induced in this day and age, escalating greatly after reign of the Industrial Revolution.

Explaining the context of thermal expansion would take us back to one of the basic properties of matter – that it expands when heated. The warming of the ocean has caused seawater to occupy a greater amount of volume and hence space. The melting of land ice, which comprises of glaciers and ice sheets contribute a much greater proportion towards sea level rise compared to ice caps from sea ice. However, the melting of sea ice in areas such as Greenland and the Antarctica indirectly affect sea levels. Land ice that has extended out onto the coast of the particular landmass is termed as ice shelves. The melting of these ice shelves could then potentially cause glaciers and ice sheets to lose its grip on the land surface and get displaced into the sea, hence increasing the volume of the sea.

The main implication of sea level rise is the increase of storms and flooding. As the sea level continues to increase, water moves more inland, thus increasing the likelihood of more and more people being affected by this occurrence. Flooding, the mildest possible phenomenon may simply pass off as an inconvenience to many. However, taken towards the greater end of the spectrum, people’s homes or even lives could be in jeopardy because of this. Past records of hurricanes and heavier flooding show us how detrimental the effects can get.

The areas across the globe where these effects are severe are usually low in altitude, with coastlines tending to be more susceptible. Some examples that are most spoken about are areas such as the east coast of the United States, small islands such as the Maldives, and certain developing countries like Bangladesh. Several factors come into play when taking into consideration these more susceptible areas, the dominant factor being altitude. The rates of sea level rise also vary in different parts of the globe. In addition to that, the geology of a certain area plays a role in this, with its tectonic activity determining the nature of its coastline. Alaska has proven to be a good example of a country where there are variations in sea level change.

Aside from humans, other living beings as well as plants will be affected. Aside from flooding, intrusion of salt water can upset a certain habitat that is not used to salt water, like freshwater swamps and marshes. The influx of salt can alter the chemistry of the soil in that area, and this could cause several plants and other organisms to perish.

How quickly is the sea level rising? Several studies have been carried out to model sea level rise to aid future projections, taking into account the factors that come into play. Levermann et al. state that thermal expansion contributes about 0.4m/°C while the melting of the Antarctic ice sheet contributes approximately 1.2m/°C. After taking into consideration the Greenland ice sheet, the sea level may rise at a rate of about 2.3m/°C. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimated a range of a 28-98cm rise in sea level by the year 2100. Church and White state that from January 1870 to December 2004, there was acceleration in sea level rise of about 0.013±0.006mm/yr² and that sea level would rise by about 28-34cm by 2100 if this acceleration stayed the same.

Essentially, previous studies to project and predict sea level change aim to give us the best approximation of what will happen in the future. Even if serious measures to reduce anthropogenic (human-caused) impacts on the environment, sea level could continue to increase, displaying an inertia towards the implications of this environmental change. The best way to put this issue into context would be to look at some individual case studies on sea level rise to see how it impacts humans and other living organisms on a smaller scale.

Here is a link to an article that provides information on sea-level rise in a very understandable manner:

https://ocean.si.edu/sea-level-rise?gclid=Cj0KEQiAvNrBBRDe3IOwzLn6_O4BEiQAmbK-DtcngVLbm6z17EiBla59kqU94gtzOpnWrHquGsoa2WgaAvZC8P8HAQ

Follow-Up on the Arctic Sea Ice

Here is a short follow-up post to my last one posted on Friday. I came across an interesting video posted by TedX Talks on some of the implications of the reduction of the Arctic sea ice. I found it quite insightful and the speaker, Dr. David Barber of the University of Manitoba in Canada delivered his talk in a way that was easy to comprehend.

Here is the link to the video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ofaoiHYKtlc

On another note, there is an interactive graph showing sea ice extents throughout the year on the NSIDC website. You are able to obtain information on the sea ice extent on individual days. There are three different lines:
1. The 1981- 2010 average
2. 2012 (when the sea ice extent hit its summertime low)
3. 2016 (when the sea ice extent hit its wintertime low)

Here is the link to the interactive sea ice extent graph:

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

The entire Arctic sea ice scenario is way more complex than was expressed in my previous post, well beyond my comprehension at this point. I hope to have at least provided an overview on what I have taken away from the information I sought. I will perhaps branch off to something different for my next post. I may or may not return to sea ice, depending on what else jumps out at me regarding oceans and climates, which is proving to be a very vast topic.  

The Arctic Sea Ice

Sea ice is basically frozen seawater that lies on the sea surface due to its reduced density. A high proportion of sea ice on Earth is located in the two areas where the climate dominated by more cool temperatures – the Polar Regions. A certain amount of influence is provided by factors like atmospheric and ocean circulations, temperatures and other climatic components on nature of the sea ice in a particular area. As seasonal variations take place throughout the year, sea ice undergoes changes. Several years of studies carried out to observe these changes have aided scientists in developing graphs and trends on variables like sea ice extent, volume, thickness and so on.

The Arctic region, which is the polar region of the Earth’s Northern hemisphere, is almost entirely landlocked. This differs from the Antarctic region where Antarctica is a landmass surrounded by oceans. The National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) provided a very useful comparison between sea ice in the Arctic and the Antarctic. To put it simply, sea ice formed in the Arctic is less mobile, and therefore accumulates and during seasons when the ice is meant to melt, results in the formation of older ice sheets that become thicker over the years. There are also other disparities that are taken into account, such as the symmetry of the ice extent, snow thickness, solar energy absorption and so on.

The average Arctic sea ice extent throughout the year is about 15 million km² during winter and approximately 7 million km² during the summer months. Due to this phenomenon the Arctic sea ice has some significance to the Earth’s oceans and climate and that current issues pertaining to how it is changing could prove to be quite serious.

In March 2016, NASA reported that the Arctic sea ice maximum that tends to be some time between February and April hit a new low this year. It was recorded that the maximum sea ice extent of 14.52 million km2 was reached on March 24. The satellite records that produce this information also showed that 13 of the lowest sea ice maximums have occurred in the past 13 years. This can be coupled with current increased global temperatures, both in the atmosphere and the ocean. Warmer seas cause more difficulty in the formation of sea ice. And at the same time, less sea ice would mean that less sunlight is reflected back, reducing the albedo, which ties with a certain amount of climate regulation.

Another NASA article also displays some footage of satellite images showing how older, stronger and thicker sea ice has started melting away. This older sea ice, which is referred to as the ‘bulwark of sea ice’ by Walt Meier, one of NASA’s sea ice researchers, has become more susceptible to melting during the summer months due to warmer climates. This is a cause for concern as Meier also states that this increases the possibility of an iceless Arctic during the warmer months.

As stated previously, Arctic sea ice helps to regulate the climate of the Earth, by controlling the albedo. A change in the sea ice extent seems to be fully capable of causing a positive feedback in other factors, potentially snowballing (pun not intended) into a more severe and drastic consequence. In a paper written by Rothrock et al., the effects of the thinning of sea ice seem to relate back to increase in heat fluxes.

This change also inevitably affects living beings in the region. For instance, several journals and magazines reported that, between the years 2006 and 2013, 80000 reindeer in Russia starved to death due to shrinking Arctic sea ice. Their food supply had been cut due to thick layers of ice formed by more warm-weather precipitations like rain, causing the snow to harden on land. Thinning of the sea ice caused an increase in rainfall due to more open water available to be vapourised.

If attempts to reverse these effects are not taken, it will not be long before more consequences radiate globally. A warming climate has caused changes in the sea ice extent, which in turn also accounts for further changes in the climate. Anthropogenic warming is occurring at a rate higher than it has ever been, so it is only natural to think that the effects of this change will take shape well before we even expect it to.

Some links to the articles on the reindeer:

1.              http://siberiantimes.com/other/others/news/n0789-mass-reindeer-deaths-if-no-early-warning-system-for-climate-change-freak-freezes/

2.              https://sputniknews.com/russia/201611171047524973-climate-change-reindeers-famine-russia/

3.              http://www.sciencealert.com/80-000-reindeer-have-starved-to-death-as-arctic-sea-ice-disappears

An Introduction

Welcome to my blog! After much thought and consideration, I have decided I am going to tackle the subject of oceans and climates. While most of us (I hope!) are aware of how the two systems are related and how they influence each other, I also feel that there is plenty of scope to learn about them as separate entities as well. So, I plan to mix and match in terms of how I go about writing my blogs, with regular updates.

Ocean and climate systems have set the stage for living beings to survive and adapt, and have undergone multiple changes over the past 4.5 billion years of the Earth’s existence - some, even at the expense of these living beings (watch out, humans!). As time progresses through the present day and into the future, these two components undoubtedly will have to go through what it has been doing in the past – it will change.

The important concerns that tend to rise are regarding the rate at which change is happening. Is it happening too quickly for living beings to handle? How much influence has humans’ socioeconomic behaviour had and will have on climate change? Is sea-level rise going to drown us? How much can one rely on past trends and data to predict what will happen in the future, near or far? How serious is the issue of climate change anyway? How much of it can we keep ignoring?

Yes, there is a large question mark hovering above my head too, but with time, I aspire to clear as many doubts that we all may have, keeping in mind the most vital task of creating some extent of awareness of what is going on around us.

With that, I bid you all goodbye for now, and stay tuned for the weeks to come!

"We shall need a substantially need a new way of thinking if humanity is to survive."

- Albert Einstein